{"id":3300,"date":"2025-11-14T08:21:49","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T08:21:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/?p=3300"},"modified":"2025-11-14T08:21:49","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T08:21:49","slug":"traders-bet-on-zohran-mamdani-deportation-odds-on-kalshi-and-polymarket","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/?p=3300","title":{"rendered":"Traders bet on Zohran Mamdani deportation odds on Kalshi and Polymarket"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(1). News related to events and topics or subjects or issues:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Online prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have become a focal point for political speculation, with traders actively wagering on the odds of New York City&#8217;s newly elected Mayor, Zohran Mamdani, being deported by the end of the year. While the implied probability is considered a long shot, currently sitting at 3% on Kalshi and 1% on Polymarket, the mere existence of such a market is notable. This event coincides with public skepticism about Mamdani&#8217;s status from figures like former President Donald Trump, despite the mayor-elect being a naturalized U.S. citizen since 2018.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(2). Causes of events and topics or subjects or issues:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">The primary cause for this speculative event is the contentious political climate surrounding Mayor-elect Mamdani. His identity as a progressive, naturalized citizen born in Uganda has made his citizenship a subject of baseless attacks from political opponents. Furthermore, his ambitious and radical policy agenda\u2014including proposals for city-owned grocery stores and rent freezes\u2014has &#8220;rattled Wall Street&#8221; and created a chorus of powerful detractors. This environment of political and ideological conflict provides the fuel for speculative markets to create and trade on such unprecedented political outcomes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>(3). Lessons to be learned from events and topics or subjects or issues:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"ds-markdown-paragraph\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">This situation highlights the evolving role of prediction markets, which now quantify public sentiment on highly speculative and personal political events, blurring the lines between financial trading and political discourse. A key lesson is the potential for these markets to normalize extreme or previously unthinkable political scenarios, even when they lack a legal or factual basis. Furthermore, it demonstrates how a divisive political figure&#8217;s background and platform can be leveraged to create markets that reflect ideological battles rather than realistic outcomes, underscoring the deepening rift between progressive governance and established financial interests.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(1). News related to events and topics or subjects or issues: Online prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have become a focal point for political speculation, with traders actively wagering on the odds of New York City&#8217;s newly elected Mayor, Zohran Mamdani, being deported by the end of the year. While the implied probability is considered [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,7,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banner","category-economy","category-television"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3300"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3300\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3302,"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3300\/revisions\/3302"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3301"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scientifictelevision.com\/america\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}